14/10/2015 - World Beer Growth Forecasts

World Beer Growth Forecasts

Press Release

from Plato Logic Limited


Ø  Forecast World Beer Market growth for 2015F-2020F +1.9% cagr

Ø  Significant regional growth variations projected

Ø  Underlying forecasted growth rates for ‘Big 4’ brewers announced


The World Beer Market is forecast to grow at just under 2% (cagr) over the next 5 years, according to latest projections from beer market specialists Plato Logic. This compares with +0.9% (cagr) for the period 2010-2015F.


Plato Logic have also announced new calculations for the ‘underlying’ growth rates of the ‘Big 4’ global beer groups, for the forecast period 2015-2020. Ian Pressnell, Director of Plato Logic explained: “These are calculated figures from Plato Logic’s projections of country growth rates, based on 2014 ownership and share positions; they are volume not value.”


Not surprisingly, as the combined share of the ‘Big 4’ is over 50% of the world beer market by volume, all 4 companies share quite close levels, near the global average.


Nevertheless, the differences reflect the varying projected growth rates for the geographical coverage of where each company is currently operational. All forecasts should be considered a ‘control scenario’ for guidance only, within upper and lower levels.


Projected growth rates (compound annual growth), 2015-2020*


Africa/ME region +3.7%
Asia/Pacific region +3.0%
SABMiller  +2.3%
WORLD Average +1.9%
Carlsberg +1.9%
A-B InBev +1.7%
Heineken +1.5%
Americas region +1.5%
Europe region +0.3%


Source: Plato Logic Limited, October 2015


*Forecast company growth rates are computed underlying growth rates (volume) based on 2014 ownership and share positions, and current country mix. Some 2014 positions have been adjusted for recently completed acquisitions. SABMiller includes 100% CR Snow and 50% MillerCoors.


Plato Logic’s latest annual “World Beer Report” was published 9th October and contains 2015, 2016, 2020 and 2025 volume projections for all world beer markets. Published every year since 1994, the Plato Logic “World Beer Report” is a standard source of reference used throughout the international brewing and allied industries.